Weight of Lies: Why There IS an Over Supply
When is supply and demand in balance? Theoretically, never. Answer: In our area, supply and demand are in balance when there is a five-to-seven month supply. A shortage of inventory would be less than a five months inventory. I don’t know what is happening in Pensacola, Washington or Montana. And don’t care. I do know what ...
When is supply and demand in balance? Theoretically, never.
Answer: In our area, supply and demand are in balance when there is a five-to-seven month supply. A shortage of inventory would be less than a five months inventory.
I don’t know what is happening in Pensacola, Washington or Montana. And don’t care. I do know what is happening in three counties; Bay, Walton and Okaloosa. Much of my work is in Walton where I live.
We’ve all heard realtors whining for months that there is a shortage of inventory. Not true. Hasn’t been true since last summer. With the exception of north Santa Rosa Beach.
Click here to access a Supply and Demand report to several areas along 30-A.
I’ve chosen three areas to report:
• Hwy 283 to Hwy 395
• East of Hwy 395
• East of Camp Creek
These are MLS sub areas. Some are natural made boundaries and some are man-made. These sub areas are how appraisers and agents search and report data. This report includes all residential properties with the exception of land. Meaning condominiums and detached single unit residences. Mostly single homes.
Hwy 283 to Hwy 395
The absorption rate is 10.58 resulting in a 10.11 months inventory. This is an oversupply.
East of Hwy 395
The absorption rate is 14.75 resulting in a 6.77 supply. Supply and demand are in balance. There is not a shortage.
East of Camp Creek
The absorption rate is 13.17 resulting in a 7.44 months inventory. This is an oversupply.
There is inventory in these sub areas. The best pricing may be found in the Hwy 283 to Hwy 395 sub area because there is more inventory. More competition. However, Watercolor is also in this sub area. And with all the new construction occurring, there may be an inventory lag. We are into the “season” now and it’s going to be more intense. Buy now. Sell now.
Overall it is a seller’s market in these areas. But not an ‘OMG’ tremendous under supply as many realtors lead you to believe. Many properties are overpriced and will sit.
BBQ: “If you think hiring a professional is expensive, wait till you hire an amateur” by Red Adair
BLT: The Weight of Lies by The Avett Brothers